Asia tipped to take lion’s share of new aircraft deliveries to 2043

China alone accounts for more than 9,000 deliveries in the forecast, with between 3,000 and 4,000 going to India and just shy of 8,000 to the rest of the Asia-Pacific region.

Globally, single-aisle aircraft are expected to make up 72 per cent of deliveries, with twin-aisle at 16 per cent, regional jets at six per cent and turboprops at four per cent; freighters are expected to make up only two per cent of deliveries.

The overwhelming majority of new deliveries are expected to be from Boeing and Airbus, with 84 per cent between them, while new Chinese entrant Comac is forecast to take six per cent of demand; around $180 billion in demand is tipped for other manufacturers such as Embraer and ATR.

According to the report, growth in the sector has been “tempered by the disruption caused to the supply of new aircraft due to various factors” such as supply chain issues, the US FAA’s limiting of the Boeing 737 MAX program, and the ongoing Pratt & Whitney GTF engine inspections affecting A320neo aircraft.

“It is clear that supply chain issues and other manufacturing will continue to cause delays for OEMs, leading to uncertain delivery schedules for many airlines, and this has been factored into our forecast,” said Rob Morris, head of consultancy at Cirium.

“With markets like India set for significant growth, it is clear that the next 20 years will be increasingly competitive for manufacturers, with airlines continuing to invest in their fleets.

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“The forecast also illustrates the challenge of sustainability and net-zero as fleet growth is balanced with new aircraft efficiency to drive reductions in unit emissions.”

Virgin Australia has been hit particularly hard by the problems at Boeing, and last month switched 12 of its 737 MAX 10 orders to MAX 8s as certification of the MAX 10 continues to be delayed. Eight MAX 8s of its order of 26 have now arrived in Australia.

In March, Australian Aviation reported how Virgin was staring down potential late arrivals of 31 new 737 MAX aircraft, including all 25 of its MAX 10s, owing to increased production delays across all Boeing aircraft types. The MAX 10s are not expected to arrive until 2026 at the earliest.

Virgin currently operates a fleet mainly comprising older 737-800 aircraft, with some 737-700s, A320s and Fokker 100s handling flights for Virgin Australia Regional Airlines. The airline in August announced it would move to replace its four remaining Fokker 100s with new Embraer E190-E2s.

Its first MAX 8 arrived last year after being delayed by problems at Boeing supplier Spirit AeroSystems, forcing the airline to initially use 737-700s on its Cairns–Tokyo (Haneda) route instead of MAX 8s as it had planned. Despite the issues, the carrier increased its 737 MAX 8 order from eight to 14 in November.

Qantas has also been affected by delays at Boeing rival Airbus, with its much-anticipated Project Sunrise A350-1000s not slated to arrive until 2026, scuppering the original 2025 launch date, while the first A321XLR for domestic services is expected to arrive next year.

The Flying Kangaroo is currently in the middle of a huge fleet renewal program that will transform its domestic and international aircraft.

Internationally, Qantas will receive 12 new 787 Dreamliners and 12 Airbus A350s to replace the bulk of its ageing A330 fleet, alongside the separate order for 12 specially adapted A350-1000 jets to launch Project Sunrise.

Domestically, the airline will purchase 28 Airbus A321XLRs and 29 A220-300s to fly its domestic routes, but with the option to buy many more.