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Australia’s aviation sector is still lagging pre-COVID-19 levels overall despite continued growth.
According to data released this month by analyst OAG, half of the biggest 20 aviation markets – including Australia – are yet to reach 2019 levels of seat capacity, with Australia still 2.7 per cent below 2019 even as it grew by 4 per cent compared to 2023.
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Australia’s region, Southwest Pacific, is one of four that has “effectively stagnated” and remains below 2019, down 4.5 per cent; it is, however, the region that has seen the best recovery of the four, ahead of Eastern Europe (down 8.6 per cent), South East Asia (down 13.1 per cent), and Southern Africa (down 17 per cent).
Global airline capacity overall grew 6.4 per cent year on year in 2024, though is still only 2.4 per cent above 2019 levels.
“In the Southwest Pacific, modest capacity cuts versus 2019 from a range of airlines including Qantas, Air New Zealand and Virgin Australia – some of which are supply and maintenance related – continue to draw back capacity growth,” wrote OAG’s chief analyst, John Grant.
“In South East Asia the much-discussed Chinese international market recovery lingers, while in Eastern Europe the ongoing situation in Ukraine is an unfortunate example of how vulnerable the sector is to other events, although capacity growth this year has been more encouraging.
“Southern Africa with a 17 per cent reduction in capacity versus 2019 has seen the loss of two of its largest airlines but ironically from an integrity of service and financial viability standpoint, is in a better position than pre-pandemic.”
China itself has grown by 10 per cent since the pandemic; however, this has not translated to increased international traffic, according to OAG, with geopolitical challenges including bilateral restrictions hampering its overseas travel.
“From 2020, [China] has seen an increase in domestic capacity of some 15 per cent, whilst international capacity has fallen by 26 per cent,” Grant said.
“The reductions in international capacity are clearly being felt in traditional overseas markets, Japan, South Korea, Thailand and to a lesser degree Australia; all remain with negative capacity versus 2019 and the Chinese market is the primary factor in those lost seats.”
Melbourne last December was the first Australian airport to exceed pre-pandemic international capacity in a month that saw it break 1 million monthly international passengers for the first time since the pandemic, with the airport also setting a new all-time monthly record for international flights at 4,976.
