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Australia is set to mark a new record in seat capacity next month as international flights surge past pre-COVID ratios.
According to aviation analytics firm Cirium, Australia will see 12.2 million scheduled seats in December 2025, with 45 per cent of this coming from international capacity.
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“That’s a notable shift from 2020, when international flights made up just 42 percent. New Zealand and Singapore remain Australia’s largest international markets by seat capacity,” said Cirium.
Indonesia, China and the UAE were the next three largest markets, with the US, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Japan, and Qatar rounding out the top ten. It comes as major airports in Australia and New Zealand embark on significant expansion plans.
“Airport expansions signal long-term confidence in demand. Sydney Airport is targeting 72 million passengers by 2045, Melbourne 76 million by 2042, and New Zealand’s Auckland Airport is planning for a doubling of traffic over the next two decades,” said Cirium.
According to Cirium, Qantas and Jetstar together make up 29 per cent of Australia’s international seat capacity, with Singapore Airlines and Air New Zealand at around seven per cent each.
“Qantas and Jetstar lead the market, with 2.6 million and 1.7 million respectively. Singapore Airlines is the top foreign carrier, accounting for 1.1 million seats,” the analyst said.
“Top three carriers account for only 36 per cent of total tracked international seats, highlighting a highly fragmented market. Asian carriers continue to anchor connectivity to Asia and beyond.”
The Cirium report comes after data from Tourism Research Australia (TRA) in June found that international traffic last year was still more than a million passengers below 2019 levels, but spending by international visitors hit a record $32.9 billion.
“In 2024, Australians continued to prioritise travel and demand for domestic trips remained high, particularly short trips close to home,” said Grant Ferres, head of Tourism Research Australia.
“However, overall growth was muted and travellers adjusted spending patterns in light of household financial pressures. On the international side, there was continued growth in arrivals from many source markets, with key markets in our region standing out.
“However, the total number of short-term visitor arrivals remained lower than the previous peak, which remains a key challenge for some parts of the visitor economy. Importantly, the visitor economy expanded and adapted to service tourism demand in Australia in 2024, however, some supply constraints were still noticeable.
“The high level of government and private investment taking place in the sector will give confidence for future growth.”
